The demographic bookends
South Korea’s fertility number in the long view
The latest reading puts Korea at the bottom of a four-country comparison that it once topped, while older residents account for a substantial population share.
By SPHRE Data Desk ·
South Korea’s latest fertility reading places the country below one child per woman in 2024. That figure is striking on its own, but the longer World Bank record gives it a more disciplined meaning. Among South Korea, Japan, Italy and China, Korea began with the highest fertility observation in 1960 and ends with the lowest latest observation. The comparison describes endpoints, not the route between them.
Data: Fertility rate for KR
Opposite ends of the comparison
Read the line chart by fixing attention on its bookends. At the opening date, Korea’s level stands above the other three countries; at the latest common date, it stands below Japan, Italy and China. Each of the four has a lower latest reading than its own 1960 observation. Nothing in those two comparisons establishes whether change was steady, abrupt or interrupted in the intervening years.
Data: Fertility rate
Korea occupies opposite ends of this four-country comparison in 1960 and 2024.
The older share today
Fertility is only one part of Korea’s present demographic profile. The separate measure of residents aged 65 and older also differs markedly between the first and latest observations: Korea moves from a small share in 1960 to about one fifth in 2025. Seen from Korea, the important fact in this dataset is coexistence at the endpoint: very low fertility and a sizable older share are both features of the country’s current measured position.
Data: Aged 65 and over for KR
The filled cells represent older residents, while the unfilled majority represents the rest of the population.
The regional and European comparators put that position in perspective without turning any one country into a template. Japan and Italy have larger latest older-population shares than Korea, while China has a smaller one. Yet the ordering for fertility is different: Korea is lowest among the four, followed by China, with Japan and Italy somewhat higher. These are comparisons of latest observations, not judgments about national choices or forecasts of what comes next.
Taken together, the two indicators sharpen the news number without claiming an explanation. Korea’s fertility endpoint sits alone below one in this small comparison, while its older share falls between China’s and the higher shares reported for Italy and Japan.
Korea moved from the highest fertility starting point in this four-country comparison to the lowest latest reading.
What to know
- South Korea had the highest 1960 fertility observation among the four countries and the lowest latest observation.
- Each country’s latest fertility reading is below its own 1960 observation.
- Korea’s latest older-population share is above China’s but below the shares in Italy and Japan.